NAR Economist Forecasts: What Mortgage Rates Will Do in May 2026
Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Real Estate Research at the National Association of Realtors, is projecting that mortgage rates will hover around 6.4% to 6.5% in May 2026. Other analysts, including those cited by CBS News, see rates staying range-bound between 6.2% and 6.4% with a slight downward bias — but all agree: rate volatility is here to stay.
What drives this uncertainty? A few key factors:
- Federal Reserve posture — The Fed has paused rate hikes but has not committed to cuts, leaving mortgage markets in a holding pattern
- Inflation data — Any upside surprise in CPI or PCE data can push rates higher within days
- Geopolitical developments — Global events are creating short-term bond market swings that directly affect fixed mortgage rates
- Oil prices — Energy costs influence inflation expectations, which in turn influence where rates go
The practical takeaway for buyers: Don’t try to time the market to the quarter-point. If you’re financially ready and you find a home that fits your needs, the calculus almost always favors acting over waiting. Rates can always be refinanced down; the home you want may not be available six months from now.
As always, Dave and Candy are available to walk through pre-approval options and help you understand exactly what any given rate means for your monthly payment and long-term costs.
Sources: NAR, CBS News — May 2026
